Thursday, December 14, 2006

投資前我會……

早前禤中怡收到一些讀者的意見,希望我能夠在專欄中作出一些股票推介,最好還加上止蝕位、止賺位之類的數據以作參考。

首先,我不是不想向讀者作出推介,但投資股票這回事,真的可以如此處理嗎?我曾經與很多專業投資人如基金經理分享投資經驗,對於止蝕、止賺這些名詞,大家聽落也覺得有點好笑。

買入一隻股票前,作為投資者必須先深入了這些上市公司的基本資料,這可從多方面入手研究,如果是大行的基金經理,最直接方法就是撥電話要求約見上市公司的管理層,進而走到這些公司的工廠生產線實地視察。睇廠的重點,必須要細緻關顧四周環境,而一些有趣小節更是「主菜」。

第一,留意工廠裏工作中工人的態度,一眾業務不俗的上市公司之工廠,年中必有很多如基金經理般的無聊人會登門造訪,工人們見慣了陌生人巡廠,自然亦會見怪不怪,理你都傻,反而如你見到工人們個個煞有介事的對你殷勤有禮的話,大有可能只是管理層事先吩咐的「待客之道」。
第二,看看工廠告示板,告示板上通常是工廠管理層發放各式各樣資訊的主要場地,每張notice都反映着這些公司的經營之道,如果你看見notice的日期年份久遠、過時的話,證明這些公司並不大着重與員工「白紙黑字」的溝通。另一方面,告示板很多時也會貼上一些與業務相關的資料,如每日生產流程、工傷數字,生產過程中的物料損耗情況等等。

除了睇廠外,基金經理也會向上市公司管理層索取客戶資料進行interview,從客戶角度了解上市公司的營運情況,這個做法的好處是,在索取客戶資料的過程中,可看清上市公司的行事模式,一般而言,基金經理在索取客戶資料前,已經能夠在年報上知悉部分主要客戶的名單,如果上市公司在交出客戶名單時吞吞吐吐的話,多少已露出上市公司與客戶的關係好壞。而在會見客戶時,基金經理更可直接了當的查問巨細資料,對日後投資起著關鍵作用。

也許散戶對閱讀厚厚的年報不感興趣,但禤中怡還是想告訴你,公司年報蘊藏著許多有用資訊,若要長期投資成功,年報不可不讀。首先,當然是公司損益表P&L,但要看的不只是公司賺蝕多少,請看看財務報表附註中的分類資料Segment Information ,當中刊載了公司各項業務的成績,許多時候會給你意料之外。另外請看看現金流量表及與去年比較,所謂“淡淡定,有錢剩”,若一間公司經營有道,包括銷售,庫存,應收及應付款的管理,以致撥作發展的資金,融資安排及派息上,都應在整體上使公司有cash profit。就如讀者一樣,無論你個人有幾多大計或想法,總不會令到自己荷包乾塘或債臺高築。

有時在「其他收入」,你也會有所發現,一些公司最賺錢的「業務」可以在這裏找到,特別今年相信很多上市公司靠這裏記錄的非本業收入如投資收益,匯兌收益支撐P&L。另外管理層的薪酬及末行使stock option的行使價及到期日更是有趣的啟示。一些非常見的附註,往往耐人尋味,有次我細看一項叫「豁免應付款項之收益」,就對該公司管理層如何cook books佩服不已。等候待判決之訴訟及或然負債也是不可不看,特別要留意當中的風險。

另外,還需看看核數師報告,若發現公司沒有clean report即核數師對帳目有某些保留,投資此公司前請3G(三思)。

股東及管理層背景亦是禤中怡必讀的年報欄目之一,很多時這裏也會披露出上市公司管理層架構裏的真實關係,如管理層是否一家親,他們的學歷資格及工作經驗都可以一目了然,另一方面,管理層委任的非執行董事名單,也必須注意,如一些公司,便十分喜歡找一些知名度高的政、經界人士擔任非執行董事,志在令公司睇落好像有點「卡士」。而非執董的人選,其實亦能反映公司管理層的人脈關係或經營之道,禤中怡多年前,便曾經發現有上市公司委任在港名不見經傳的老外為非執董,最初也不明所以,其後這家公司卻披露原來有意在這名老外非執董的國家作出大量投資,而這名老外的盲公竹角色也不言而喻吧。

(12月14日刊於《am730》)

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