Tuesday, May 02, 2006

對付港台的武器——徐林倩麗

廣播處長朱培慶過去常在中環一家紅酒名店選購紅酒,禢中怡也曾在該處遇見他。朱處長喜與店主談酒經,且買心頭好時,也會精打細算、細心比較,與其管治下的港台出現的糊塗帳事件比較,朱處長在處理私人事務上就醒目得多。

從商業管理角度上,港台出現的問題匪夷所思,連晨早買報紙都要專人服侍走兩轉,一年超時的開支達8萬元,無論是那家商業機構的內部核數師(Internal Auditor)睇完呢條數,都應該會向management反映,過唔到「雙E管理」(effectiveness and efficency)呢一關,又點會讓其繼續發生呢?故此,可以斷言,港台內部會計、核數制度,與外間慣常的一套應該不盡相同。

另一方面,從近年政府與港台的關係發展而言,朱處長一早已「紮行馬」同政府對著幹,可惜不知是否他的焦點只著眼於傳媒敏感、公器社會價值這些golden rule之上,如早前試圖邀黃名嘴開咪,以顯示港台的潛在威力,卻明顯地忽略了港台自身已露出的營運弱項(weakness of operation),反過來,政府已繞過了敏感的節目、內容與質素這些無客觀標準的問題,只專攻其營運漏洞。

從公共公關上,政府是贏了一仗,就是有傳媒中人為港台解畫,指政府「項莊舞劍,志在沛公」,但在市民心裡,連買報紙這等小事都幹出亂子來的機構,還可對她投上信任票嗎?
禢中怡是局外人,但我估計政府在港台問題上,仍然會以營運缺失來聲討之,而且其實政府一早已在公營廣播服務委員會中加插了重量級人馬預備發炮,這人正是理工大學工商管理學院院長徐林倩麗。

徐太年前才從城大過檔,在紅磚牆坐正成為工管系掌門人。早前更有指徐太是嶺南大學下任校長的熱門人選。徐太父親林本典先生是香港黃金市場七、八十年代的老行尊,徐太的夫婿是中環界內猛料獵頭公司Kom Ferry的主管徐佩恩。

徐太本身無乜傳媒工作經驗,與其餘5位委員與主席黃應士比較起來,真是風馬牛不相及,唯一令人聯想到的,就是徐太會以老本行來observe吓港台呢盤公共事業的種種。

不知是否禢中怡心多,我始終認為以徐太之功力,及政府之用心,港台的管治漏洞,未來將會成為角力的重心議題,而徐太則可視為政府的最強秘密武器,黃應士先生,可能只是台前「棟篤笑」的配角而已,朱處長,好戲在後頭啊!

默沙東賠到抽筋未天光

對於投資默沙東(Merck)的股東來說,4月11日新澤西州最高法院,關於Vioxx呢隻止痛藥的判決,同最後審判的判決真係無乜分別。新澤西州最高法院陪審團,以七對一裁定默沙東,因為蓄意隱暪非類固醇類止痛藥Vioxx對心臟的風險,要向77歲的原訴人John McDarby賠償900萬美元,約7,000萬港元。目前仲有成萬單官司等緊默沙東,如果全部都係咁賠,默沙東財政一定頭痕。所以判決有結果後,默沙東股價即跌。

先講番單案的來龍去脈,除了必理痛、散利痛呢類比較弱的止痛藥,依家主流止痛藥有三種。癌症病人用的是芬太尼、嗎啡一類鴉片類止痛藥。如果關節有問題的病人,可以揀食類固醇類止痛藥,但好易肥,又多副作用。

所以,好多藥廠打崩頭,研究非類固醇止痛藥,而Vioxx係其中一隻,這亦是曾經好受歡迎的非類固醇類止痛藥。

在2003年至2004年,有好多服用Vioxx的病人患上心臟病,甚至已經發作咗,之後研究人員發現,Vioxx此類止痛藥,會大大提升心臟病的風險,令默沙東在2004年底收回此藥,之後各路人馬就陸續入稟法院,要求默沙東賠償。

由於這次損失太勁,默沙東已經聲言要上訴,但上訴係唔係咁易打甩就天曉得。不過,其他藥廠亦都唔好用幸災樂禍的心情,來看這次默沙東賠償事件。

因為審呢單官司的法官Carol E. Higbee,仲負責審瑞士羅氏暗瘡藥Accutane,懷疑搞到使用者抑鬱到自殺而去索償的案件,以及女性荷爾蒙藥物出問題案件等。這次默沙東案都賠咁多,咁羅氏以及其他藥廠有關的個案,分分鐘都會賠得更重。

別因社保基金入市看好港股

中國突然加息,令恒指以及國企上周五急跌。不過,另一個好消息完全抵銷了這負面影響,國企在跌200點後便轉頭急升。這個好消息便是社保基金已獲准投資海外,金額雖然不算多,但亦只是一個起步,這亦是港股上周急速反彈的原因。現時社保基金要求的回報,需要超過新華富時香港指數3%。

以其規模而言,其實這亦算是一個較為進取的回報。不過,股票只佔其總投資資產的一部分,要求較高的回報亦是合理。這情況正如國內保險公司的投資組合,如果可以投資海外,在風險管理方面應可做得更好。從另一角度看,社保基金投資海外亦不是今日才知的事實,國內的保險公司其實亦一早已可投資海外。為何取態一直較為保守呢?中國人壽(2628)以及平安(2318)的業績可能有一點啟示。集團投資海外,除了本身產品的風險外,還要考慮匯率因素。

人民幣在去年升值2%,這些公司在香港的投資(以港元或美元結算)便變相錄得匯兌虧損。人民幣升得越多,匯兌虧損便越多。當然,如果股票回報佳,這已可完全抵銷這部分的虧損。但對於社保基金這些機構,2%至3%已是很重要。而且暫時的金額不過是幾十億元,如果單以這個行動而看好港股,可能只是一廂情願。

另一方面,美聯儲局主席伯南克指出美國經濟稍後有機會放緩,即代表利息有機會見頂,這可能才是股市上升的動力。

不過,從最近的經濟數據看來,令人難以相信加息週期將結束。不過,美元則應聲下跌。美元轉弱,其實亦是另一個利好港股的理由,因為滙控(005)仍然佔恒指的比重仍然高達30%。這間全球第二大的銀行現時的市盈率亦不足12倍,應是最吸引的藍籌。

佔恆指比重第二大的中移動(941)亦不算昂貴,如果社保基金來港買貨,中移動應是頭號吸納對象。

(02-05-06刊於《am730》)

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