潮爆投資商機——環保企業
作為投資人,如果只懂在香港找機會,已經十分落後,要佔先機,除注意環球股市走勢外,亦需睇趨勢發展,近年環保意識抬頭,禢中怡亦想同讀者分享一下投資世界環保企業的潮流風向。
近排又講無膠袋日,又講可持續發展,如果我唔想做污染地球嘅幫兇,避免投資一些破壞環境嘅企業,咁又有無基金或者指標,可以選擇呢?咁當然有,早在1999年,道瓊斯已同STOXX以及瑞士SAM Group合作,推出道瓊斯可持續發展指數(Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes)。
入得呢個指數的公司,要符合由瑞士SAM Group所定的一系列可持續發展要求,亦即要在環保、社會發展呢啲方面過到關,至會被放入指數裡面。所以一些惡名昭彰的化學大集團,就唔會在呢個指數中出現。根據呢個指數的成份股進行投資,應該唔會錯誤咁投資落一些危害環保的兇手度。
當然,呢個SAM Group唔係一個NGO,以蘇黎世為基地嘅SAM Group,本身係一間專做環保基金嘅公司,佢旗下好多款唔同概念嘅環保投資基金,現時佢哋有9隻基金,其中一隻更加同滙豐集團合作(不過香港好似無得買)。SAM Group旗下基金,由與道瓊斯可持續發展指數掛鈎嘅基金,到投資一些專搞環保科技公司嘅基金都有。好似佢哋有個可持續發展水基金,就專門投資响同可持續發展有關的水利事業、同淨水科技研究之上,例如佢哋投資嘅其中一間公司AWG plc,主要業務係為英國東南部提供食水,以及污水處理服務。
近排油價貴,SAM Group又有個聰明能源基金,專門投資一些在節能科技度有貢獻的公司,包括港人較熟悉的日本京瓷。好多人都知京瓷出相機叻,但佢哋在太陽能板技術上,都處於領先位置。投資環保企業,在旺市時,可能並非首選,但投資要有長遠、廣闊嘅視野,不要只顧眼前利。但投資唔係做善事,其表現又點呢?佢哋嘅水基金、環保能源基金、可持續發展資產基金都表現唔錯,賺到唔少錢,同大市表現差唔多。
內地零售股風險大
昨日日經下滑接近500點,恒指亦借勢調整。中移動(941)跌近3%,滙控(005)亦跌近1.2%,拖累恒指下挫206點,成交達417億元。焦點當然是和黃(013)賣港口,主要港口股也逆市上升。持有上海港務30%的招商局(144)上升6%,已升至接近97年的高位。上海港務上市看來只是時間問題,如果大連港(2880)也可超額850倍,上海港務無疑會更受歡迎。
港股下跌的原因,除了日本之外,國內政府會否進行宏調也是投資者關注的地方。另外,看到部分公司的業績不及預期,亦令人擔心如果增長放慢,國內公司是否值得高溢價。典型的例子是建行(939),早前已指出這間國內第三大銀行的貸款增長令人失望,加上明年的平均股東回報率亦會下跌,是否值2.8倍帳面值亦是疑問。不過,作為第一間上市的四大銀行,建行亦有一定指摽作用,中國銀行應會參考建行及交行(3328)的估值。從陰謀論看,未來建行的價格可能會受中國政府(希望較高價錢訂價)以及投資銀行(希望以較合理價錢訂價)的意向所影響。
內地零售業一向被認為是高增長的行業。現時經營超市的物美(8277)的06年預期市盈率為33.4倍,市盈率比盈利幾年翻一番的利豐(494)還高,反映市場對這行業寄予厚望。但對手聯華(980)剛宣布的業績遜於預期。純利2.4億元(人民幣,下同)增長11%,較市場預期的2.6億元低。競爭激烈導致毛利率回落,難怪需要上市集資,透過每年收購一家地區龍頭企業以維持增長。中國第三大電子產品零售商永樂(503)去年10月上市,增長強勁,05年銷售額上升48%至122億元,純利升幅更達56%,至2.89億元。
不過,看真一點,扣除稅項補貼收入,該公司的經營溢利僅升6.6%至2.44億元,同店銷售還下跌2.8%至每方米33.8元。集團的盈利預測因此與招股書的預測2.88億元非常接近,從另一角度說則是令人失望。06年的展望亦不見特別出色,因主要競爭對手會在上海開設分店。管理層亦間接發出盈利警告,指上半年的盈利或較去年上半年為低,難怪連保薦人摩根士丹利亦將其評級調低。
解決方法亦是透過收購。集團打算收購北京中大來提高市場份額,而永樂亦將成為繼國美(493)後國內第二大連鎖店。雖然如此,昨有傳聞指部分永樂的股東希望減持合共3.7億股,因此股價亦照跌20%,而且配售價較昨收市價3.425港元還有折讓。大市現時已由資金推動,有些公司可一日升20%,一日跌20%。當然市場越波動對投機者亦越有趣,不過熱錢來得快走得快,投資前應考慮可承受的風險。
(25-04-06 刊於《am730》)
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