Wednesday, January 02, 2013

越南勝在年輕


先恭祝大家新年快樂!身體健康!

還記得談到日本通縮恐怖,新首相安倍晉三登位後立即設法,要通脹重臨,算是對症下藥,希望刺激內需,否則繼續「陰乾」。當然,他可用的板斧有限,但成功在短時間內令日圓貶值一成,日股漲一成,生產商放心,投資者也開心。

據厚生勞動省估計,日本人口於去年續淨減少21.2萬名,已連續6年報跌,人口減少的數目更創二戰後新高,原因之一是出生人口減少1.8萬,至103萬名的歷史新低,若果趨勢持續,不但老齡比重增加,消費能力無可避免受削弱。

另一邊廂的新興市場卻朝氣勃勃。禤中怡日前往越南河內走一趟,電單車飛來飛去不在話下,年輕才是他們最大的本錢,在巴士碰上一名導遊,雖然滿面鬍子,原來才29歲,還準備做首任爸爸;在餐廳用膳,貌似負責人之小姐芳齡22;在住宿的酒店遇上經理,真的估不到,如果他沒有騙人的話,26歲!與的士女司機談起,化了妝、潮服一身的她自報年齡僅36歲,還拿出身份證以作證明,可愛得很。

翻查資料,當地近七成人口年齡介乎15至64歲,若果這批勞動人口薪金不斷增長,反映消費能力定必增強。以去年為例,全國銷貨及服務總值1,107億美元(約8,634億港元),增長16%,即使與過去數年,每年以20%的速度增長比較,數字經已放緩,但肯定羨煞不少國家首腦。

不過,禤中怡購物意欲不大,可能外國人對民族特色產品較感興趣吧!街邊的商店和坐矮凳的攤檔確實多,但這個坐擁接近9,000萬人的國家,原來零售市場才剛起步,現代化的商場雖陸續湧現,但萬料不到全國超級市場僅有636間!簡單計,豈不是每14.1萬人才有一間超市?難怪閒逛一些巨型超市時,不但人頭湧湧,架架購物車也是滿滿的,而價格亦非較街上的商店便宜。

至於商場數目亦不過120個,便利店也只是逾千間而已,請記著,這是全國數字,可見零售網絡貧乏程度。此外,光顧當地私人企業的零售額佔整體85%,外資投資的零售銷貨及服務總值雖只有32億美元(約250億港元),但一年升幅已達35%。

可惜,上市公司投資越南的不多,只有陸氏集團(越南)(366),和在當地產銷機車的越南製造(422),曾名為「越南控股」(139)的上市公司也已改名為中國微電子了。至於部分上市公司如裕元(551)和信星鞋業(1170)兩隻鞋股也不過在當地設廠生產而已,為何如此有活力的地方乏人問津,下周同大家分享。

另外,如打算往當地旅遊,先提供過馬路秘訣:「咪望」,電單車司機們會自動在你身前身後越過,有趣。

(1月2日刊於《am730》)

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