Monday, September 18, 2006

SK-II神仙水出事 P&G不好過

著名的化妝品品牌SK-Ⅱ,被中國國家質檢總局發現含有重金屬。但SK-Ⅱ的生產商,美國寶潔公司(P&G)最初死口都不認產品含有重金屬,但昨日又在報章刊登聲明,指「鉻」及「釹」廣泛存在於大自然,故不排除在原材料或在生產過程中,有微量殘留,但重申在生產過程中,並無添加鉻、釹或其他重金屬,只是答應產品會退貨。這件事令到禤中怡有些大惑不解。

SK-Ⅱ在中國出事並非第一次,去年3月有人控告SK-Ⅱ含腐蝕成分,更連SK-Ⅱ廣告代言人劉嘉玲也差點成為被告之一,寶潔無理由不知SK-Ⅱ已經成為中國政府重點監察的對象,而公司又不對產品加以小心處理。更有趣的是,無綫記者在上周走到銅鑼灣崇光的SK-Ⅱ專櫃,買4款SK-Ⅱ產品交予城市大學檢驗。崇光專櫃應不可能賣假貨,因專櫃應直接向寶潔取貨。結果真是一如國家質檢總局所指,驗到成分有問題。目前情況對寶潔很不利,如SK-Ⅱ的產品全由日本國內工廠生產的話,這或已可說明全線SK-Ⅱ都有一樣問題,若有好事之徒拿去美國進行集體訴訟,寶潔隨時賠過沒完沒了。寶潔主要業務是家庭用品,若然產品予人不安全感覺,打擊更難以估量。

雖然SK-Ⅱ屢屢出事,但如寶潔般的美式大集團,一向懂得來華投資之道,中國政府無理由會搞針對。雖然SK-Ⅱ係日本化妝品,但都是美國公司產品,而寶潔公司一向在中國市場都很「勤力」,甚至在廣州投資設廠,在香港買到的寶潔旗下洗頭水,例如head and shoulders,沙宣等等都是由廣州廠方供應,有些並無直接由寶潔公司引進入香港的產品,像Tide洗衣液,寶潔都在中國設立生產線,主攻中國市場。中國當局究竟與美國寶潔之間發生甚麼問題,令到當局針對SK-Ⅱ,中國那麼多有問題化妝品,為甚麼要重點打擊SK-Ⅱ,背後關係耐人尋味。對投資者來說,除了要搞清楚SK-Ⅱ為何出事,還要看寶潔與中國當局關係究竟有何問題,寶潔如果在中國「搞到」關係一鑊泡,必影響其股價,及對競爭對手英國聯合利華(Unilever)及日本花王有利。

另外,禤中怡對SK-Ⅱ的處理手法亦有小小意見,從最初不以為然,到最後承認產品確實含重金屬,但從來也沒有意圖全線回收有問題產品,雖然重金屬含量非常、非常之少,但畢竟SK-Ⅱ本身是高價化妝品,消費者對她的期望是較一般二、三線價格商品為高的,照理消費者們無理由明知SK-Ⅱ含重金屬殘留也冒著一定風險而繼續購買吧!故此,若是高明的公關策略,就應該自行全線回收產品,給予消費者一個負責任的感覺,待事件查明白後,再重新上市。

SK-Ⅱ的產品,尤其是神仙水,一向是中環「適婚」年齡OL的恩物,SK-Ⅱ在一眾巨星如琦琦、鄭秀文、劉嘉玲力谷下,銷量一向佔眾化妝品牌的前列,但若不把今次危機處理得宜的話,就是再大灑金錢以作宣傳,也可能只是徒然。

台灣百萬人倒扁股樓翻身
上周台灣似乎不斷翻雲覆雨,百萬人倒扁、25萬人挺扁與及醞釀全國大罷工等,像進入一片混亂般,當地居民已人心惶惶,理論上台股應受恐慌氣氛而遭拋售,但奇怪的是台股(加權指數)竟不跌反升,何解?台股在6,800點附近徘徊,預測今年市盈率只有8至10倍,應是整個亞太區股市中最便宜的,較港股市盈率逾16倍便宜一半,難道台灣經濟真的隨倒扁事件顯得非常差勁?

回想起《信報》孔少林兄曾在6月撰文,提及台灣企業大部分業務已在大陸設廠,並以出口外地為主,如鴻海旗下富士康(2038)等,其業務狀況根本不受台灣政治與經濟影響,環球行業前景與內地政策更影響純利,但鴻海等在台灣上市的公司卻仍然受政治影響,故估值竟較子公司富士康便宜!另一方面,內地政府想更多台灣廠家在內地設廠,並積極推出有利台商政策,既令內地經濟得益,亦令台灣企業愈依賴大陸,先從經濟上「統一」,那時不管綠營與藍營當政都要與大陸講和。台灣企業利潤一早與當地經濟脫鈎,故台股在一片恐慌下回升,顯然是有強勁外資看好該區未來前景而不斷入市。聰明的外資為何要買昂貴的富士康而不低吸極度便宜的鴻海呢?

樓市方面,錢多的內地人已率先攻入台灣樓市。台灣尚未對大陸遊客正式開放,嘉義縣一個樓盤「亞洲未來城」在8月首次到內地銷售,不消一個月已被掃光,當中六成買家為上海市民。該盤提供細單位,面積約30米,每米售9,000元人民幣,每伙不到30萬元人民幣。整體平均價雖不算便宜,但外資已急急腳走進台灣樓市。禤中怡所知,台灣樓市一向較封閉,地頭蟲「玩晒」,外資很難進入,港人若有心投資台灣,可從買入龍頭股與REITs(房地產投資信託基金)著手。將在港上市的瀚宇博德亦有台灣概念,雖只是線路板廠,或仍會給予市場一個驚喜。記得當年沙士時,香港似是世界末日,股市最終竟不跌反升,是甚麼力量推動呢?現只能事後孔明:強者入市。相信台灣情況與香港同出一轍。

(9月18日刊於《am730》)

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