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經濟好,金融市場自然轉趨活躍,證券、基金等必擴充營業,財經演員或稱名咀又見大轉移,音樂椅遊戲再次開始。
近日得知胡孟青重出「電視圈」,據了解她又趁大市轉旺另謀高就,胡小姐其實剛於去年從高信證券轉投滙豐,但今次因為「有喜」,已懷孕7個月,而在滙豐工作須要顧及環球股市,不論美股、歐洲股市,連日本、港股都要兼顧,日夜顛倒的輪班工作似乎並不太適合現在的她,對胎兒亦不是太好,故決定辭去滙豐金融服務(亞洲)副總裁一職,還笑說「依然後生,亦會繼續拼搏」。至於待BB出世後,亦會有多些時間湊BB。
但呢頭話辛苦,嗰頭又攞苦嚟辛,她說近日開了間公司名為「香港財經資訊顧問有限公司」,並出任該公司董事,倘若日後找她評論股市及股票,簡稱佢做股評人便可。
至於時富早前被挖角,原擔任研究部主管的劉仲坤被瑞銀挖角去當顧問。畢竟是外資大行,吸引力着實很大。不過,該公司亦反應迅速,一口氣從御泰方面找來兩件名咀,擴大資產管理部門,他們就是姚浩然(Patrick)和陳蓓敏(Kitty),據講為擔任該部門聯席董事職位。Kitty昨日更已在時富首天上班,Patrick稍後又會開工。雖然在角色上與Herbert(劉之英文名)一向所擔任的研究職位有所不同,但他們同為財經名咀,而且兩人同具備資產管理經驗,正好配合該公司發展資產管理業務的需要,皆因證券買賣相信已「無肉食」,幫客戶管理資產,賺管理費可能更有前途。
由於尚未履新或剛剛到位,他們兩人都不便隨便曝光,但聽聞加入新公司後,又再可以在各大小媒體露面,相信很快會以新職銜為投資者提供市場評論等意見。
Patrick加盟時富前為御泰資產管理聯席董事,與03年加盟御泰的Kitty並肩作戰已有一段時間,今次齊齊過檔,合作方面自然駕輕就熟。Patrick過去亦於匯富證券打工,做銷售部副總裁,相信他們兩人在金魚缸打滾少說也有十年八載,但原來他們亦於嘉洛證券出身,齊擔任分析員工作,想不到早已是好拍檔。
潄口水大戰一觸即發
在大西洋另一邊的美國,一場關乎好多人口腔衛生的爭奪戰即將爆發,這個就係輝瑞藥廠(Pfizer)消費性產品部門,究竟落晌邊間公司手上。《華爾街日報》指,英國葛蘭素史克(GlaxoSmithKline)和美國的高露潔棕欖(Cologate-Palmolive)好有機會在呢場爭奪戰裡面爭餐死。
現時輝瑞手頭上的消費性產品,大部分係2000年為咗得到依家好好賣的降膽固醇藥膽固清(Liptor),收購華納大藥廠(Warner-Lambert)嗰陣買返嚟嘅,而華納大藥廠最主要的產品係李斯德林漱口水同潔口片(Listerine)。雖然李斯德林個品牌好正,潔口片好好賣,問題係輝瑞無論在處方藥定非處方藥產品戰線上,都無牙膏或口腔護理產品去支援李斯德林,與其係咁,每年收嗰38億美元營業額,不如以140億美金左右,賣咗成條非處方藥物的生產線算數,換番些彈藥去做研究。但對葛蘭素史克同埋高露潔棕欖,李斯德林鹿死誰手,好決定佢哋在口腔護理產品的市場佔有率。在美國,本來高露潔同李斯德林係綑綁銷售,你買高露潔牙膏嗰陣順便買李斯德林係有3蚊美金折扣嘅,若可將李斯德林名正言順納入其中,咁高露潔棕欖在口腔護理市場可以講係玩晒。
而葛蘭素史克之所以對李斯德林食指大動,因為葛蘭素史克近年在口腔護理市場野心好大,除手上有牙醫好鍾意開俾病人,搞到味覺麻晒的消毒漱口水Corsodyl,仲買咗舒適達(Sensodyne)防敏感牙膏,如有埋李斯德林,同高露潔拗手瓜便能力大增,故葛蘭素都食指動。
私有化的重要考慮
昨天已有談及關於中信國金(183)的分析。公司復牌後,股價急升38%至4.8元,主要因為母公司低價注入中信銀行,明益上市公司股東。市場亦有傳聞指中信集團會私有化中信國金,禢中怡則認為機會不大。很簡單,要私有化時,有兩個重要需要考慮:是否對母公司有利,以及價格是否低殘。前者,如果需要私有化,根本無需考慮注入中信銀行。正如昨天所言,中信國金面對的問題是經常性收入停滯不前。香港銀行水浸,按揭息率日漸收窄,對於中信國金這類中小型銀行而言,面對的壓力亦不細。注入中信銀行,當然可以增加公司的增長動力。正如我們相信即使中銀以及工商銀行來香港上市,在香港上市的中銀香港(2388)以及工銀亞洲(349)亦不會被私有化,因為兩者的名字已反映出公司的市場定位。而中銀香港亦算是十分有效率的銀行,看不到精簡架構後可以帶來很大協同效應。
至於後者,私有化太平協和(438)便是最好的例子。大股東以每股0.65元的價錢,於沙士時私有化當時股價僅為0.43元的太平協和。集團在上海持有大量靚地,在南京西路亦投入了不少資金。私有化價格較當時的資產淨值2.188元已經有很大折讓,還未計最近上海樓價大升的資產升值。不計是次注資,中信國金的估值只是一般,私有化效益成疑問。
公司業務是否見底,管理層當然較行外人有更多訊息。昨日華潤宣布私有化華潤水泥(712),交易令人有點意外。公司在03年7月以介紹形式上市,除了發行可換股債券外亦沒有籌集任何資金,為何急需於上市兩年半內便將公司私有化呢?
水泥業務過去兩年面對不少壓力,除了受到宏調影響需求以及格價外,煤價以及工資上升亦影響毛利率。因此,純利大幅下滑亦是可以理解。
最近水泥業務已開始復甦,公司的盈利亦應會有所改善。在這時間宣布私有化,亦難免令人質疑當初分拆的決定。雖然私有化價格較現價以及早前的低位高出不少。但亦不要忘記集團的股價在剛上市的半年內亦高於私有化價格,而且在招股書中亦認為「水泥行業是中國具規備優厚盈利增長潛力的行業之一」。不過從另一角度看,由於公司規模亦不算大,加上每年的上市費用亦不低,這的確可為股東鬆綁。長遠而言對股東以及母公司亦可能是正面的做法。既然集資能力有限,以及母公司並不缺水,私有化總好過白白支付上市費用。
(04-04-06 刊於《am730》)
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