海域集團(1220)和海域化工(2882)齊「爆煲」，又再一次引證基金投資者的眼光並絕不比一般散戶銳利。據聯交所資料披露，由散戶相當熟悉、著名投資家謝清海負責的Value Partners原來於今年2月申報已持有海域集團3,813.56萬股，佔約8.99%股權。雖然4月披露已減持400多萬股，但股權仍有7.99%，認真捧場。此外，德勝安聯資產管理旗下的德盛小龍基金更早於04年已持有該股5.06%股權。
至於隻海域化工也不乏捧場客，美國微軟主席比爾蓋茨的慈善基金於04年投資2,556萬股更成為一時佳話，但可惜隨後減持股份至低於5%，毋須再申報，難以估計今次有否受損。不過，有一間名為Martin Currie的基金公司投資該股多年，自04年持8.5%股權後，曾增持股權至8.96%。這間以蘇格蘭愛丁堡為基地的投資公司，為退休基金、慈善基金等服務，管理的資產高達214億美元(約1,669.2億港元)，算是有一定規模的機構投資者。
看看這批背景雄厚的股東名單，便知道海域來頭不小，皆因要人投資你的公司，不但業績要對辦，更要有遠景，而這些公司也斷不會兒戲地望望主席樣貌是否端莊便「下注」，相信總會有點研究分析，拜會管理層，甚至親身前赴生產基地，看看有沒有真正的廠房吧！可惜的是，海域副主席許浩明常常談及企業管治，似乎在他打工的公司裡蕩然無存。試想像，公司的資金怎可在短時間內，輕易地消失超過8億元人民幣，好像街邊的銀行提款機，讓人隨意提取，皆因資金運用必定需有一套程序。所謂舉一反三，既然資金在毫無防備下懷疑已流失，那麼該集團之前公布的業績又是怎樣產生，確需臨時清盤人多加了解。
當然，如創維(751)前主席黃宏生非法挪用公司資金的做法，已變成一種罪行，大家也無話可說。做股東最慘的並非公司看錯市或投資錯誤，皆因公司仍有機會翻身，但若果有人選擇「呃」股東錢的話，對股東和公司都是兩敗俱傷。
亞洲最貴十大豪宅
港佔二至九位美國《福布斯》雜誌昨日公布全球「最豪」的豪宅，第一位仍是位於英國Windlesham的 Updown Court，現時市值高達7,500萬英鎊(約10.84億港元)，足以買間上市公司過主席癮。這座超級豪住宅共有103間房，泳池亦有5個之多，當然可想像得到的娛樂設施也一應俱備，包括可容納50個座位的影院、網球場、壁球室以及保齡球室等等，而且是一家獨享，並非同人分享的會所設施。至於亞洲區超級豪宅方面，估不到排名第一位的，竟然來自首次入榜的土耳其伊斯坦布爾的Waterfront Estate，市值達1億美元(約7.8億港元)，即時排名第一位，同時亦為全球最豪住宅的第四位，該物業共有64間房間。這個位於亞洲和歐洲之間的國家近年經濟迅速成長，難怪樓價急升。香港寸金尺土，在亞洲十大豪宅排名中，佔據其中8個最前列的位置，如排第二和第三的The Genesis就是鼎鼎大名，前股壇名家香植球的創世紀，市值也迫近2億元。雖然房間數目不算多，但6,000呎面積已屬「巨無霸」。目前該項目由世茂國際(649)所持有。由於大部分單位均位於港島區山頂，要有富豪身份，大家知道地址是哪處啦！
(7月26日刊於《am730》)
The cynical analyst is at it again. Recently he endured another blood letting situation over the space of high yielding credits in Asian fixed income market; one emerged missing billions of dollars and the other went on the acquisitive tracks to diversify from its business. And clearly nobody could ever have analyzed ahead that these events will turn out at such ferocious downward velocity, or is it really nobody? The cynical analyst, as I know him, has always been the 20-20 guy, pretty full of after-the-fact bull shit. In all fairness, he has had a few points which I think we all can appreciate. He reckoned, interestingly, from 1997 defaults of Citra Marga, Bukaka Tenik Utama, Barkie Brothers, Medco Energi, Mulia Industrindo, GITIC, FITIC, and GZITIC, to name a few, who at all would have expected that these companies would ever come to the days of reckoning so early? APP, the largest pulp and paper company in Asia, went into default almost on the same pathway with its close peer, APRIL. Who would have known? Also interestingly, these defaults usually did not stem from sharp deterioration of the financials, but from exogenous factors that people have elected not to pay a lot of attention over. In most instances indeed, instantaneous financial fallout has been the last culprit in an Asian default situations, as opposed to fraud. I argue with him that it is also the case in the largest US bankruptcy in recent years, Enron. And he agreed. But in the cases of 1997 defaults, it was truly the willingness to pay amid currency volatility in the case of Indonesia as to the letters of comfort in the case of China. The recent cases of Choada and Ocean Grand are reminiscent of events in which companies have secondary agendas or do not stick with their business plans, but financials looked all well and good from the last reporting period. The cynical analyst said the extra yield pickup is to pay the risk-loving investors. A look at these bonds' indentures reveals that they are in no way close to the usual tight covenant packages offered in typical high yield transactions. In these lines, investors that bought the deal are really risk loving. But I disagreed and suggested to him that covenants, similar to pricings, are becoming more and more market determined. There is never a bad bond, only bad pricing, so to speak. In response to this, the cynical analyst said he was constantly challenged by his fund manager peers in the office... saying to him, "don't just freaking complain, show me one damn bond I could buy, I just can't let the cash freaking sit there doing nothing?" The cynical analyst always doubts if that is a good enough reason to venture into something that goes from BB-minus to default in the span of 8 months. In fact, the cynical analyst has observed that deals with bad merits always get done when the market appears peaking, while investors are chasing yields or the good opportunities that they have missed out on earlier deals. Would anyone equate the investment merits of Shimao Properties and Green Town? Who would have thought Green Town has outperformed during the first day of IPO when Shimao Properties in fact embraces a more accommodating geographical and business coverage, even during times of tightening monetary policies. Similarly, who would have expected BOC to outperform CCB when CCB's fundamentals rest on more sturdy grounds and are supportive to a long term growth story? Again perception and greed got in the way of clear thinking. The cynical analyst said, these recent cases only show professional investors (to me he is more like incriminating his fund manager peers in his office) are also human beings, and are susceptible, irrespective of whether they are or are not CFA chartered, to charades painted by companies roadshowing their transactions. The cynical analyst went on to say to me, time and again fund managers compare among themselves on the basis of annual track records, but at the same time fund managers encourage street investors like you and me when buying into their funds to look for time horizons of 10-20 years for a stable and decent return on the money we put in. In fact, one will never be hired to run a fund in this market if he lacks a track record in his old job, despite the very fact that in all likelihood one person's much proclaimed track record could have been coming from a fund jointly managed by a team of people irrespective of one person's decisions. Someone's so called track record could just very well have been one of the boats being lifted by rising tides and has nothing to do with that person's own, single competences. If you know how fund companies operate, individual decisions are being counted on less and less often these days. Headhunters would agree, but why the track record illusion still persists?
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