Tuesday, April 11, 2006

快樂的八折的士司機

禢中怡有一晚搭的士,遇到一位健談的司機,吹水吹得興起之際,的士大佬突然好像中環人般遞上卡片,說日後要搭長途車就找他,有八折。的士大佬仲向禢中怡披露八折車的運作情況。

原來全港目前有7至8個「八折黨」,其架構尤如一間公司般有制度、有系統。每個黨的成員分為3層,最上層者俗稱「centre」。顧名思義,centre是整個黨的核心,人數約10人,所有乘客「柯打」會由他們統一接聽。這些centre之的士上,閒閒地有10部8部電話,其電話號碼印在卡片上派發,故早已深入民心。

Centre接到柯打後,會把自己「做唔切」的客人,轉介給第二層成員(即他們的「下線」)。不要小覷「八折黨」的柯打數目,不妨想想,「下線」司機每日需支付數十元予centre,但仍有近百名司機肯加入為成員,就可以想像流向「下線」的柯打有幾多了(亦可想像centre每月收入有幾「和味」)。

有時生意旺起上嚟,會連「下線」都做唔切。此時,黨內的第三層司機就發揮作用了。儘管第三層司機接的都是剩餘客人,但因毋須支付任何費用予centre或「下線」,變相免費擴闊了客源,而對整個黨來說,他們又起著確保無「漏客」、潤滑黨運作的作用。

接載禢中怡的司機大佬稱,他以前只接散客,日入數百元,現在加入八折黨做「下線」後,日入動輒過千。出人意料的是,這些的士黨與普通公司一樣有員工福利,過時過節有聚會,如團年飯,席間還會舉行抽獎,獎品包括DVD機等,一啲都唔寒酸。

的士大佬的一番話,令禢中怡想起的士行業與載客客貨車近日的抗爭。當局計劃利用行政手段,為客貨車在機場設下禁區、訂定3個落貨點的做法,對的士行業的幫助有多大?接載散客之的士司機叫苦連天,在高牌價政策下,的士司機不能任意減價,反觀於法不合的八折黨卻生意滔滔,可見的士唔係無人搭,解決的士收費與市場接受程度之間的分歧,才是治本之法。

點解Mossberg評論咁有份量

美國電腦界近日的hot talk,是微軟Office Live,被一位專欄作家勁彈,評語是:「offers basic services but isn’t flexible」連Bill Gates都無面俾。邊個咁大膽? 他叫Walter S. Mossberg(小圖)。

無論係電腦玩家,定係電腦廠商,每個禮拜四一定會留意Mossberg在《華爾街日報》的專欄。對玩家來說,Mossberg所推薦的,必定不會太差,而對廠商來說,Mossberg推薦與否,差不多為產品的前途定生死。究竟為甚麼Mossberg可以咁「把炮」?

Mossberg同外國好多寫科技評論的人很不同,他在1994年改行寫科技評論之前,幫《華爾街日報》跑了18年政治同國際新聞,連他的大學學位,都與電腦無關,完全無技術背景,純粹因為喜愛玩科技產品,至會臨老改做電腦專欄作家,他現在已經55歲,真係稱得上老而彌堅。不過他懂得以一個消費者的角度,去寫科技評論,而非走去做公關公司的廣告寫手,或以一個工程師角度去寫,對大多數無技術背景的讀者,簡直係明燈。至少你唔會在他的專欄,讀到大量似外星文字的技術術語。

Mossberg實在是香港一眾電腦寫手應該學習的榜樣,他從來不賣帳,亦都唔理班Vendor主動送產品俾他老人家玩,佢覺得好就會讚,唔好會彈,廣告寫得太誇張,佢會晌專欄度話俾廣告商聽「你吹水」。

而且他老人家彈或讚的產品,係揀過先寫,他自言每個禮拜一次的Personal Technology專欄空間好珍貴,唔係甚麼東西都值得寫落去。所以他的專欄,得到各界尊敬,甚至被譽為IT界最有影響力的人物之一。
講到Mossberg,再同香港的所謂IT雜誌比較,真是兩碼子事。香港所謂腦記,唔係工程系科班出身不打緊,但不要給人覺得你寫緊鱔稿,欠缺專業知識,仲要學人扮專業,為何讀者要付十幾元買本電腦雜誌返嚟墊煲底?不如上網看免費的Mossberg專欄更實際。

順便寫下Mossberg專欄的網址給大家(http://ptech.wsj.com),完全免費,不是訂戶也可以看,放心。

社保基金入市規模細

關於QDII以及社保基金的消息,其實市場上已傳了一段時間。社保基金理事會投資部主任李克平指出,社保基金日後15%將投資於私人實業。按照去年底社保基金資產規模2,010億元人民幣計算,大約為300億元人民幣。其實這還不及港股現時一日的成交,實際上是心理作用大於實際。不過,在旺市時,股市總會將好消息放大,將壞消息縮細。對投機者而言,最重要是有消息。

這300多億元日後將投入以銀行為主的國企股 IPO 項目中,估計100億元人民幣將投資於中國銀行,而另外100億元人民幣將投資工商銀行。加上去年交銀(3328)的100億元人民幣投資,單單這三間銀行便已投資了300億元人民幣。

以近期新股的走勢看,投資於這幾間銀行的新股投資者看來是必賺的,單單是交銀的投資在不足一年內已賺了接近一倍。然而,要考慮的是這些銀行的業績是否可以維持呢? 建行(939)剛剛宣布的業績其實令人失望的。

除稅前盈利增長只有8%,不知主席郭樹清先生是否真是很滿意各項財務數據的表現。估計今年除稅前表現會較佳,但仍然會遠低於交銀。所以社保基金只選擇交銀亦有其道理,四大銀行太依靠國企,雖然資產質素是有改善,但恐怕仍需努力。另外,如果過多股份由與國家相關機構持有,流通量亦是一個問題。

因此,估值不低可能只是一個假像,情況就如過去日本以及一些金融機構互控的情況。泡沫一爆破,殺傷力更大。

(11-04-06 刊於《am730》)

56 comments:

  1. the permalink does not work.

    i think blogger use the blog title as the link. but it probably has problem taking big5(trad chinese characters).

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  2. Walter Mossberg 在 4月7日那編《Apple opens the Mac to Windows》的報告細緻、詳盡又中肯,明顯他是「落手落卻」試過用過。

    昨天見到《明報》講同一主題,口水得不得了,其他所謂的電腦集誌更是「得淡笑」,抄都唔識抄。

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